Growth plan
AVA growth plan: Nov 12 to Jan 4
Nov 12 ยท Sean Clayton
This week we finish plugging the funnel: offers that match the page, email by stage, and attribution that sees installs and payments. From Nov 16 we push top of funnel through creators, Gift of AVA, local newsletters and partner communities, with paid tests on Meta from Dec 1.
Where we start
Most signups never reach a trial, and nothing follows up on that gap today.
| Measure | Today | Source |
|---|---|---|
| People with access | 994, about 300 paid | Joe, Nov 4 |
| ActiveCampaign contacts | 3,494 | Account check, Nov 9 |
| Contacts linked to app activity | 52 of 1,152 (4.5%) | Joe, Nov 4 |
| SEANVIP signups to trials to paid | 438 to 6 to 0 | Joe, Nov 4 |
| Welcome email clicks, emails 1 to 6 | 636, then 36, 17, 7, 2, 17 | Account check, Nov 9 |
| Payers who cancel at first renewal | About 30% | Joe, Nov 4 |
The habits that predict paid: messaging AVA on 2 or more days in the first 72 hours (66% convert vs 49%), adding a calendar event (73% vs 52%) and allowing push (62% vs 38%). Every flow below pushes one of these.
Targets
| Goal | From | To | By |
|---|---|---|---|
| Signup to trial | About 1% (SEANVIP) | 20% | Dec 31 |
| Trial to paid | Current rate | Up 5 points | Dec 31 |
| Churn at first renewal | 30% | 22% | Jan 31 |
| Gifted households converting to paid | 0 | 100 | Jan 31 |
| Share of December trials from referrals | Untracked | 15% or more | Dec 31 |
| Paid CAC on Meta | No baseline | Holiday baseline, then sub-$10 goal | Jan 12 |
Targets get measured against holdouts. They are goals, not forecasts.
Trial starts by channel (Nov 16 to Jan 4)
The push goal is 4,000 trial starts in seven weeks, with 40% from paid. The realistic case on today's plan and budget is about 700. The last six weeks brought about 290 trial starts in total.
| Channel | Realistic | Stretch | Push goal | What the push goal needs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paid (Stacey) | 250 | 400 | 1,600 | About $11,200 in spend at the $7 per trial target on Meta, about $320 a day from Dec 1. Stacey to confirm the projection |
| Email flows | 70 | 130 | 500 | About 350 signups a week, 20% reaching a trial, and the existing list of about 3,000 re-engaged |
| Sean's channel (SEAN1) | 50 | 120 | 500 | 2 to 3 AVA posts a week, and signup to trial moving from about 1% to 15% |
| Creators | 50 | 100 | 450 | 20 to 30 creator posts instead of 5 |
| Gift of AVA | 50 | 150 | 300 | About 500 gifts sent, with the in-app banner live |
| Baseline (word of mouth, existing codes) | 150 | 200 | 200 | Holds at the top of its recent range |
| Partner communities | 30 | 50 | 150 | Let's Go Baby and Auggie, plus the WorkMoney pilot before January |
| Organic social with Laura | 25 | 40 | 150 | One or two posts break out |
| Local newsletters | 30 | 50 | 100 | 6 or more sends booked instead of 2 to 3 |
| Clipping | 0 | 20 | 50 | The Content Rewards campaign confirmed active |
| Total | 705 | 1,260 | 4,000 |
The measured inputs are weekly trial starts and the SEANVIP signup-to-trial rate (Laura's dashboard, Nov 9, and Joe, Nov 4). Every per-channel rate and the paid cost per trial are estimates, because AVA has no history on these channels yet. The first two weeks set the real baseline.
Two decisions move the total most: the paid budget, and whether paid starts Nov 16 or Dec 1. The paid target is $7 per trial on Meta. At that rate the current $200 a day from Dec 1 brings about 1,000 trials, and 1,600 needs about $320 a day. Laura and Stacey set the paid projection. The realistic and stretch columns assume $17 to $28 per trial until there is a baseline. Signup to trial matters more than reach: SEANVIP brought 622 signups and 6 trials, so the email flows have to be live before more traffic pays off.
Stage 0: see every step (this week)
Nothing scales until we can tie a creator post or an email to an install and a payment. Joe implements, Sean guides.
AppsFlyer: accept the Meta terms, set the SKAN MMP URL for Meta, and map the key events (registration, trial start, subscribe, purchase) in both AppsFlyer and Meta. The premium trial ends Nov 14, and Juan offered to extend it, so ask for the extension now.
OneLink as the download link in every ActiveCampaign email, and Smart Script on the landing pages, so email and web traffic show up next to paid.
RevenueCat into AppsFlyer, so revenue sits next to spend.
Drop the separate Facebook SDK work. AppsFlyer says the AppsFlyer SDK alone covers Meta attribution, which saves Joe a second SDK.
Confirm utm_source is captured on the new pages. On Nov 9, 7 of the 8 newest signups had no source.
One code per creator and partner, so each placement reads on its own. Live today: SEAN1 (one month free), ALINA, IDA1, LETSGOBABY, AVAGIFT.
Stage 1: plug the funnel (Nov 12 to 15)
The Oct 2 to 8 cohort renews this week and the planned renewal save never ran, so the save email ships first.
Offers and pages: the TRYAVA page and welcome email 1 must match the offer each person tapped. Both still promised 14 days on Nov 9.
Email flows, built by Sean in ActiveCampaign, sent from Laura, with Laura approving everything new for two weeks:
F3 renewal save, now: payers with no activity in 14 days get one useful nudge before renewal, with a 20% holdout.
F1 signup to install, live Fri Nov 13: copy follows the offer code, four emails over six days.
F2 trial activation, Nov 16 to 20: calendar on day 1, texting on day 4, a weekly rhythm on day 7, a clear price note before the trial ends.
F4 cancel and win-back, from Nov 23.
F5 weekly broadcast split by stage.
Matching app logins to signup emails happens through AppsFlyer, per Laura and Joe, not by email match.
Monthly newsletter: keep it as the community and mission letter. The weekly stage-split send carries the install and habit asks. No contact gets more than 3 emails a week.
Stage 2: top of funnel (from Nov 16)
Every channel runs on its own code and gets a keep or cut call after its first read.
| Channel | What runs | Owner | Dates | Read it by |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gift of AVA | Gift page live, AVAGIFT code, 3 VIP emails, gift reels, in-app banner, Sunday Story rhythm | Laura with Sean | Nov 13 to Jan 4 | Gifts sent, redemptions, gifted trials to paid |
| Sean's channel | Post plus Stories on SEAN1, a Story every 2 to 3 days, one larger video | Sean | From Nov 12 | Clicks and trials on SEAN1 |
| Creators | Alina (Reel Nov 22, Stories Nov 25 and 28), Ida shorter cut, Heather, Lily Freeman UGC, five new creators emailed Nov 10 | Sean, Laura approves claims | Rolling | Trials per code, cost per trial |
| Local mom newsletters | Five quote requests out Nov 9, plus kits for Orlando, Charlotte, Tampa, Park Slope Parents, The Assist | Sean | Book 2 to 3 sends by Nov 30 | Trials per code |
| Partner communities | Let's Go Baby free month from Dec 1, Auggie expert profile and launch Story, Bountiful Mom | Laura with Sean | Dec 1 for Let's Go Baby | Trials per code |
| Organic social | Claim-card openers, Collabs with Laura's account, 2 reels a week for 3 weeks, comment keyword for the link | Sean and Laura | From Nov 13 | Reach, link taps |
| Clipping | Content Rewards campaign funded Oct 2 | Sean | Check status this week | Trials from clips |
| Paid (Stacey) | Setup Nov 10 to 30, $200 a day from Dec 1: 70% Meta, 15% Reddit and Pinterest, 15% quiz | Stacey | Dec 1 to Jan 12 | Holiday baseline CAC |
Creator rules: posts stay up at least 60 days, every post carries Ad or Paid partnership, and claims stay inside the approved product wording.
Gift of AVA dates: Email B from Sean and reel 1 on Fri Nov 13, Email C on Nov 17, the how-to-gift reel once the banner ships, the partner-buyer reel Nov 24, subscriber emails Nov 24 and Dec 15, a push on Thu Dec 3, and the founder reel Dec 14.
The Ollie search test is off the list unless the account already runs. Ollie closed Nov 6, so the searches fade fast.
Stage 3: partnerships (longer cycle)
WorkMoney: the one-hour working session waits on Evan (Laura nudged Nov 12). Proposed pilot: about 250 parents on iPhone, a co-branded page, a free intro period, and expansion toward 5,000 to 10,000 once agreed thresholds hit. Sean joins the session.
Boost Mobile: decide whether to go back for a working session like WorkMoney's.
Civics Unplugged: the alumni referral program ($20 per conversion discussed Sep 22) still needs its structure and budget.
Skylight, Vivvi and Aura: bundle and benefit ideas to size after WorkMoney.
AI-assisted community replies in Facebook groups, Reddit and X: proposal still owed, with platform rules checked first.
Who owns what
| Person | Owns |
|---|---|
| Sean | D2C growth: funnel health, email build, creators, clipping, newsletters, organic social, AppsFlyer guidance |
| Laura | Approvals, sender on every email, offers and codes, partner relationships |
| Joe | AppsFlyer, RevenueCat and in-app events |
| Jacob | Landing pages, gift page, in-app banner |
| Stacey | Paid tests on Meta, Reddit and Pinterest |
| Nadine | Hands email over to Sean this week |
Weekly rhythm
Daily: a short email digest of signups by source, flow entries, sends, opens, clicks, unsubscribes and blank sources.
Weekly: one readout every Monday with trials and paid by code and channel, plus keep or cut calls.
Sean and Laura: Friday call to review the readout and approve the next week's creative.
Decisions needed
Who runs Meta ads: Stacey's paid plan, with Sean on organic, creators and attribution.
The 60-day keep-up and an early-removal remedy for every creator contract, starting with Alina.
Whether to pay Heather's manager $1,500 to keep the Reel live.
Whether to buy Lily Freeman's $250 UGC video.
Whether to return to Boost and Civics Unplugged now or after WorkMoney.
Sources
AVA Email Autopilot Plan, with Laura's Nov 12 comments
Gift of AVA execution pack and Laura's Gift of AVA campaign doc
AppsFlyer recap from Juan, Nov 10
Nov 4 action plan from the Sean and Laura call
Slack and email with Laura, Nov 4 to 12